An interview with Abba Horwitz of Old School Partners was featured as part of our new subscription newsletter, Israel Opportunity Investor. You can find out more about the company and the opportunities we cover at www.israelnewsletter.com

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Tell us a little about yourself and your fund.
Abba Horwitz, Portfolio Manager: We started started Old School Partners in March of 1999.  Since then, we’ve compounded a net return to investors of around 19%.  We’re running the fund for the most part from Israel.  With a junior partner, I’m managing roughly $60 million.

What’s your philosophy?
AH: We focus primarily on the small to midcap world.  We apply a value approach.  Basically, we’re looking for two things.  We’re looking for value where there is a clear catalyst to unlock this value or cheap growth with value undiscovered, on the cusp of coming out.  Unfortunately, I’m not a big commodity buff and have not been riding this current wave.

Can you give us a couple of examples of some successes you’ve had? (Continue »)

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As inflation rears its head around the world, Israel is no different from many other countries that have seen prices spike as of late.  Where Israel differs from the rest of the world is not in experiencing inflation, but how the economy is leveraged to it.

Let me explain: Israel suffered from bouts of hyperinflation during its 60 years of existence.  Most salient was the 1970s which saw double digit inflation throught the decade, culminating in 100+% inflation in 1979.  The beginning of the 1980s introduced stagflation and saw even higher inflation rates.

Here’s where the history impacts today’s Israel: in an effort to combat hyperinflation, Israel created an economy-wide phenomenon of CPI-linked debt.  This debt is not specific to a specific sector and according to a report produced last week by UBS’s Israel analysts, may compose over 50% of corporate debt, over 60% of the government’s shekel debt, and 60% of mortgages.

After the last couple of boom years 2005-2006, most of the corporate debt raised by Israeli firms is also linked to the CPI.  Merrill Lynch is out this morning as well with a study on the effects of higher CPI on Israeli firms.

The money line from the UBS report: However the spike in CPI in Q2 could affect the bottom lines of many Israeli corporates and we are concerned that a continued high inflation could continue to weigh on the profitability of many Israeli companies.

So, what’s an investor in Israeli firms traded in the U.S. to do?  UBS suggests underweighting those institutions with high CPI exposure.  The storm feared by analysts would play out with consumers being hit with rising prices in the market also being compounded with resets in adjustable rate mortgages that are linked to the CPI.  In turn, this could curb consumer spending which is playing a bigger and bigger role in GDP growth.

While Olmert clings to a feeble position in a government beset by scandal, UBS suggests that “the rise in CPI will also have fiscal implications as the Government could be squeezed by paying more on its CPI linked debts as well as collecting less corporate taxes.”

Zack Miller
IsraelNewsletter.com

(Another Globes article out this morning entitled ‘Ticking Bomb‘)

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Has the massive shekel run finally come to an end?  Deutsche Bank thinks so.  Globes reports today that DB analysts think that the recently-announced 4-fold increase of dollar purchases (up to $100 million/day) by the Bank of Israel may be the proverbial top for the Israeli shekel, which has enjoyed a huge run against most of the world’s top currencies over the past couple of years.  We’ve written voluminously on the shekel’s rise that’s even prompted certain Israeli hi-tech firms to offshore engineering work to the U.S. Globes also recently reported that wages of senior Israeli high tech managers are beginning to come under pressure.

With gas station managers in the U.S. rumaging through storage units due to a shortage of ‘4’s’ to display on their pumps, I wonder if Israeli gas station managers are having the same problem with ‘8’s’?  Brutal.

The large multinational tech firms (and now consumer products firms) continue to use Israel as a R&D hub.  Interesting historical view/story of Sun Microsystems Israel here.  It’s part of a larger series done by Ayelet Noff on Israeli High Tech. Om Malik also shared his thoughts on a recent trip to Israel for the Israel 2008 conference here. VC Cafe’s Eze Vidra has a good article about Israeli firms receiving funding but fighting for survival here.

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange mulls change in market hours here.

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Aaron Katsman
IsraelNewsletter.com

In what has been an extremely volatile trading session, which has seen the shekel trade near the 3.21 level against the US dollar, news that Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer has increased the level of BOI intervention in the currency market has sent the dollar surging by more than 2.25%. The BOI announced that it will increase it’s buy-up of the greenback to a $100 million a day.

The continued rise in the Shekel has defied all logic. Even yesterday, the shekel strengthened by more than 1%, as Iran announced the testing of missiles that have the range to hit Israel. Under normal market conditions that news would have sent the Shekel reeling, but it just didn’t happen.

Let’s see if fundamental reasoning returns to the local currency market on the heels of the BOI move, or if this move is just a knee-jerk reaction that will reverse in the next few days.

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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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