As we have mentioned here more than once, the Israeli economy may not be in as great shape as our leaders have let on. Tonight’s surprise 50 basis point cut, bringing rates down to just 3%, indicates that even the Bank of Israel is worried about a potential economic slowdown or even a recession.

With analysts lowering their ‘09 growth forecasts, Fischer who has until last week remained unrealistically optimistic, appears to have thrown in the towel an admitted that things aren’t all that rosy, and is trying to add liquidity to the Israeli banking system to try and prevent the same type of credit crisis gripping the global banking system.

While I think the local economic slowdown will continue, this aggressive move by the Bank of Israel will help stem the damage to the economy that a prolonged recession could cause.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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Well that didn’t take long. The love affair with President elect Obama, certainly didn’t reach Wall Street as the market suffered the worst drop ever after a presidential election. Yesterday the S&P 500 closed down 5.3%. I guess soaring rhetoric and calls for unity didn’t sway investors. It appears that investors don’t think that words about change and the fact that many new babies born in Kenya that were named Michelle and Barack, will actually cure an ailing economy.

Investors are waiting to see which Obama we are going to see. Will we get ‘Senator Obama’, who had one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate, or will we get the ‘campaign Obama’ who ran on a more moderate economic plan? If we get ‘campaign Obama’, then investors will be more at ease and the potential exists for a market rally. If we get ‘Senator Obama’ who will govern based on his liberal ideology, and have all the help he needs from Pelosi and Reid, they will form what I like to call the Bermuda Triangle ( i.e. they will spend and spend, and we will never see that money again, it will be lost). In such a scenario it would be tough for stocks to rally.

Wall Street is waiting to hear about the Obama economic plan, not rhetoric but specifics, and until we hear it, stocks may be in for a bumpy ride.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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When a new client who had recently received an inheritance opened up an account with me, he transferred this new portfolio from a well-known brokerage firm. After the transfer was completed, we sat down to review his current holdings and adjust the portfolio. Some of the client’s stocks were showing large losses. However, he explained that since he had received them as an inheritance, he felt awkward about selling them. He felt attached to them and didn’t think they should be sold. He then said that as he realized that such attachments were not beneficial to investment, he was going to wait for them to move back up to the price for which his recently deceased father had bought them. Then, he would sell them.

This is a very common scenario. Children often refuse to make changes to a portfolio that they have received as an inheritance. Very often, this is due to sentimental reasons. In other cases, investors stick with a losing position for years in the hope that it will return to the original price they paid for it. However, this is not the best approach to investing.

We All Make Mistakes

Sometimes you may have a little extra money at your disposal, and you decide to invest it. Maybe a friend gave you a handy stock tip, or you read about a company that sounded like an interesting prospect. After doing some research, you decide to invest in this company because it seems like an obvious winner. But when you receive your first statement, you see that the stock has dropped. So you decide to follow the policy of being patient. As time goes by, you keep checking, but the stock keeps dropping. Eventually, you become living proof of the old adage that patience is a virtue. The stock market may be moving up, but you are stuck with a loser.

In fact, chances are that if the stock starts dropping by 10, 15 or 30 percent, there could be problems with the company, and it may potentially pay to sell. However, many of us find it psychologically difficult to admit that we have picked the wrong stock. It’s hard for us to say that we made a mistake.

Opportunity Cost

Very often, the longer you hold onto an under-performer, the more money it costs. The reason for this is that the investor could have put his funds into something that actually made money. Therefore, stubbornly holding onto a losing stock will only cause financial harm to the investor. In economics, this situation is referred to as opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is defined as the cost of an alternative that must be forgone in order to pursue a certain action, or the benefits that could be received from taking an alternative action.

Profit from Losses

Never think that all is lost. Some good can actually be derived from losing stock positions. When the position is sold, the investor realizes the loss, which may have certain tax advantages. The loss can be used to offset other gains, thus lowering the tax bill. In fact, although they may not realize it, for many investors tax-loss selling may be the most important way to reduce their tax bill. If done correctly, receiving the appropriate advice before making any trades, it can save the investor money and help diversify the portfolio in various ways.

Working with licensed and experienced financial advisers can help you evaluate objectively whether you are holding bad positions. It is then worthwhile working with an accountant to create a tax-efficient portfolio. Many professional investors live by the credo that you should ride your winners and dump your losers. The reason is simple. There may be a reason why the stock is performing poorly, namely, that the company is not executing their business up to its potential. This indicates that is probably a good place for you, the investor, to avoid putting your hard-earned money.

There is a good chance that the relative that left the money for you as an inheritance would like you to gain from it. Speak with your financial adviser to see if your newly inherited portfolio matches your investment goals and needs and whether it is invested in an efficient manner.

Aaron Katsman is President of Global Investments at Profile Investment Services. He is a licensed financial professional both in the United States and Israel, and helps people who open investment accounts in the U.S. Securities are offered through Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. a registered broker dealer, Member FINRA, SIPC, SIA. For more information email aaron@profile-financial.com

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Not that I enjoy saying bad things about my hometown of Seattle, Wa. but when it comes to politics, most residents of the city are just plain nuts. It’s no wonder that the largest city in a state that was once dubbed, ” the 47 states and the Soviet of Washington,” is so far off to left that even great news, can be spun into catastrophe. That’s exactly what happened in yesterday’s Seattle-PI. In a very telling headline the question is asked, “The Money Squeeze: Is cheaper gas bad news?”

Huh?

What a stupid question. Of course it’s good news, if consumers can save 30% of their gas bill, can you explain to me why that’s bad?  I know it’s bad for environmentalists, and all those who drink the Al Gore Kool-Aid. After all it just goes to show that crude-oil is king, and alternative energy sources like  wind, solar, fully pumped tires, are all prohibitively expensive and fall by the wayside as crude prices fall. What happened to the whole alternative energy craze?  Funny what $65/barrel oil can do!

According to the PI article: ” When prices at the pump surged this summer, maintenance technician Taylor Morgan decided to change the way he got to the downtown Seattle office building where he works. He started taking a bus from his South Seattle home a couple of days a week. And he told his wife that the bimonthly trips to see family in British Columbia had to be cut to once or twice a year. On Friday, Morgan said he was happy to be driving his Honda Accord to work every day again. He stood pumping gasoline at a 15th Avenue West Chevron station, where the price for regular had dropped to $2.99 per gallon.

“Things are getting back to normal,” he said. “But with the crazy price changes, you can’t really be sure. It’s really confusing.”

Morgan and other baffled consumers are far from alone. With markets exceptionally volatile, even the region’s top economists can’t say whether gas prices will continue to fall or rocket again.”

Excuse me. What’s confusing about gas prices dropping rapidly? Why is it an issue if economists can’t predict the future? I don’t hear anyone crying over the fact that 6 months ago most ‘economists’ where predicting $5 per gallon. Nice call!

Heck, maybe just maybe the cheaper oil will mean salvation for the near bankrupt US car industry. Instead of another government bailout, maybe cheaper prices at the pump will help jump-start new sales.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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