Articles abound about how the US is nervous about the outcome of the recent Israeli elections. Th prospect of a center-right wing government has US officials on edge. Why? After all if the will of the people in Israel decides to vote decidedly for the right wing, what business is it of Washington?
According to a Jpost report: “Still, many political analysts say there’s no doubt the Obama administration would prefer to see a national-unity government headed by Livni. “The impression in Israel is that the Obama administration has already made its preference known and that its preference is for Kadima - and that impression isn’t going anywhere,” said Georgetown University professor and
Israel expert Michael Oren. “They’d rather work with a centrist government than a right-wing government.” He added that the preference of the Obama camp, with its interest in intensive diplomacy, was “legitimate,” noting that many Israelis preferred Republican presidential candidate John McCain because they observed a greater alignment of views.”
The fact is that the State Department has had an agenda regarding Israel for decades. They would love for Israel to continue to cede land, in the hope for a peace treaty. the state Department has been blind to the actual condition on the ground. Not wanting to hold the Palestinians accountable for terror, which has scuttled almost all attempts at reaching an agreement.
This arrogance is found in a quote given by Dennis Ross, in the same article. “Dennis Ross, Clinton’s Middle East envoy and likely to be a top regional representative, described Netanyahu as “overcome by hubris” after his first election to the premiership and recalled him being “nearly insufferable, lecturing and telling us how to deal with the Arabs” in his book on the Oslo peace process. ”
With all due respect Mr. Ross, Netanyahu was right, and both Oslo and your policies while in the Clinton administration brought Israeli’s wave after wave of terror. Could it be that you are the one “overcome by hubris?”
As 2008 comes to a close, let’s take a look back at the predictions this pundit made a year ago. Let’s start out with some of my correct calls:
1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).
Nailed that one!
4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.
Many will say that was a no-brainer.
6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.
Just look outside your window.
Now for some of the less accurate predictions:
2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ‘08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ‘08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.
Oops!
3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.
So I missed a few on this one.
All in all not too bad. Stay tuned for ‘09 predictions.
Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.
With 2007 about to finish, it’s time to look forward to 2008. Here are a few of my predictions for the new year. Before I start I just want to make clear I don’t expect anyone to hold me to what I say, but of course if I actually get something right, rest assured I will let you know about it.
1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).
2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ‘08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ‘08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.
3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.
4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.
5- Picking up from a lackluster ‘07, with regard to M&A of Israeli publicly traded companies in the US, ‘08 will have no less than 6 major deals. Look for Gilat(GILT), Retalix(RTLX), Commtouch(CTCH), Comverse Technology(CMVT.pk), CEVA(CEVA), and Fundtech(FNDT) to be acquired.
6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.
7- After completing an undefeated season and winning the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots’ winning streak is snapped in week 3 of the ‘08 NFL season.
8- As much as I would like, most of these predictions will not come true.
We should all have a year of health, and happiness.
Disclosure: Author’s fund holds a position in GILT,CMVT.pk,CTCH,RTLX and FNDT. He has no position in any other stock mentioned as of 12/31/07.
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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.
