Someone called us recently to ask about a newish ETF called the SPDR Emerging Middle East & Africa (Amex: GAF). The ETF is heavily weighted around three countries — South Africa (65%), Israel (17%) and Egypt (6%).

There are other ETFs that include exposure to Israel but as far as we know, this ETF currently has the largest exposure.

Israel as a destination

We like Israel (but hey, we’re biased). While Israel is not putting up double-digit GDP growth like China, we are seeing close to 4-5%.

Not too shabby.

Foreign capital is flowing

We’re continuing to see money coming into Israel looking for a home. Canaan Partners just announced another fund that will be targeting opportunities in Israel.

Can Israel do better?

And if you ask Netanyahu [subscription required], we could see close to 8%, if certain pro-market policies are put into place. Even Netanyahu’s detractors credit his cuts in welfare benefits, the removal of remaining currency and capital controls, and liberalization of the banking sector as cutting the way for an amazing economic recovery.

Check out Eze Vidra’s post, “Israel 2008: What the Bulls and the Bears are saying“, for some good forecasts of what various analysts are looking for from the Israeli economy in 2008.

What does the ETF hold?

Check out the GAF’s holdings. What you’ll see is that Israel’s 11% weighting is driven by the fact that Teva Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TEVA) is the ETF’s largest holding at over a whopping 9%. We then see Israel Chemical (2%), Bank Leumi (1.43%) and Bank Hapoalim (1.41%). Elbit Systems (Nasdaq: ESLT) is also in there (1.06%). The rest of the Israel holdings each account for less than 1% of the SPDR Emerging Middle East & Africa Fund.

Investors in Israel from abroad may like the fact that this fund holds locally traded companies that aren’t dually listed or carry a corresponding ADR in the US.

So, what’s an investor interested in Israel to do?

That said, 17% of a fund that has exposure to really different economies may not be enough for foreign investors looking to trade locally-traded Israeli shares. Also, TEVA’s weighting at 9% of the overall fund means that Teva alone accounts for over 50% of the total Israeli exposure.

Teva may be a great company but it’s not indicative of the Israeli market as a whole. I’d like to see more exposure to Israel Chemicals, the Israeli banks, Bezeq, 012.Smile (Nasdaq: SMLC), the Mobile phone carries including Partner (Nasdaq: PTNR) and Cellcom (NYSE: CEL), let alone all the newer, smaller, tech firms listed locally.

What about mobile fixed telecom players like Alvarion (Nasdaq: ALVR) and Ceragon (Nasdaq: CRNT)? Both have taken a worse beating than Britney has received from the paparazzi.

I’d like to see a country ETF also include local retailers like Blue Square-Israel (NYSE: BSI)

Israel investors may be better off weighting for new offerings in the works as we hear that Barclays and another firm has an Israel ETF in registration.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter. Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks. Go here to learn more.

Share with others:

Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com  

With 2007 about to finish, it’s time to look forward to 2008. Here are a few of my predictions for the new year. Before I start I just want to make clear I don’t expect anyone to hold me to what I say, but of course if I actually get something right, rest assured I will let you know about it.

1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).

2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ‘08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ‘08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.

3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued  new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.

4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.

5- Picking up from a lackluster ‘07, with regard to M&A of Israeli publicly traded companies in the US, ‘08 will have no less than 6 major deals. Look for Gilat(GILT), Retalix(RTLX), Commtouch(CTCH), Comverse Technology(CMVT.pk), CEVA(CEVA), and Fundtech(FNDT) to be acquired.

6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.

7- After completing an undefeated season and winning the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots’ winning streak is snapped in week 3 of the ‘08 NFL season.

8- As much as I would like, most of these predictions will not come true.

We should all have a year of health, and happiness.

Disclosure: Author’s fund holds a position in GILT,CMVT.pk,CTCH,RTLX and FNDT. He has no position in any other stock mentioned as of 12/31/07.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter.  Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks.  Go here to learn more.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others: