Barclays Capital came out predicting a quick end to the shallow Israeli recession, and a return to decent growth of 2.9%  by next year.  Keep in mind that the Israeli economy was late to the ‘recession game’ and looks to be an early ‘exiter’ from economic turmoil as well.

With all this great news Barclays said that they expect an Israeli Shekel/USD exchange rate of 3.65 buy the end of the year. That’s a big move from the 3.93 area that the currency is trading at now.

According to Globes: “Barclays sees a less severe recession in Israel, and relatively quick growth recovery. The investment house bases its optimism on the fact that about 75% of Israeli exports are high-tech goods, and Barclays says that a rise in the Tech-Pulse Index - showing a US high-tech recovery - points to stronger Israeli exports. The Tech-Pulse Index, measured by the San Francisco branch of the US Federal Reserve, tracks the US information technology sector.”

It looks like we have started to see this happen. As Tech has led the stock market turnaround in the US, Israeli stocks that trade in the US have been flying, up over 33% this year. Keep in mind that, like it or no, President Obama’s push for alternative energy sources will be huge for Israel, as Israel is one of the big global players in cleantech and water technology. If this trend of a ‘tech led recovery’ continues, look for the Israeli hi-tech scene, from small and mid-cap tech plays on the NASDAQ to M&A to Israeli VC, to have a very strong 2nd half of ‘09, and lights out for 2010.

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Project Better Place continues to build momentum, as the maker of electric cars, has signed up 19 Israeli companies to test the suitability of running their car fleets with electric cars.

According to Globes: “The participating companies cover the gamut of Israeli industry, from high tech to telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, finance, manufacturing, agriculture, and juice. They include Israel Corporation (TASE: ILCO), which has invested heavily in the venture, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA), Pelephone Communications Ltd., Partner Communications Ltd. (Nasdaq: PTNR; TASE: PTNR), Matrix IT Ltd. (TASE:MTRX), Direct Insurance - Financial Investments Ltd. (TASE: DIFI), Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd., Netafim Ltd., Keter Plastics Ltd., Orbotech Ltd. (Nasdaq: ORBK), juice maker Jafora Tabori Ltd., Manpower Israel Ltd., SQlink Ltd., Nike Israel Ltd., and Glasshouse Technologies Ltd. Better Place will begin designing the recharging points for the companies’ electric cars and install them at the companies’ parking lots and employees’ homes. It will also work with the companies’ managers and employees in the design and deployment of the infrastructure in order to optimize and customize them to the needs of each company.

Even if it works, the question still remains whether consumers are going to spend more money on an electric car? Also without massive government subsidies, how high will the price of these cars go?

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Indications that the recent find of natural gas of the coast of the Israeli city of Haifa were pointing to a pretty big find. Now it turns out that it may be huge. According to Globes: “The consortium drilling the Tamar-1 well offshore of Haifa has received encouraging news from the drilling operator, Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL), which reported today that flow test results showed that the potential size of the original estimate of 3.1 trillion cubic feet has now been increased 60% to an estimated resource potential of 5 trillion cubic feet. Noble Energy chairman and CEO Charles D. Davidson said, “The test results from the Tamar well confirm our initial analysis that the discovered reservoirs are very high quality. This discovery is clearly of a size for commercial development. We hope to extend the success in Israel by testing Dalit, our second prospect.”

This is so big for Israel, that it’s hard to comprehend. Who could imagine that a country with little in the way of natural resources is now going to be a net exporter of natural gas? Suddenly Israel will be a player, along with its’ enemies in the region, in the global energy market.

I say forget Shai Agassi and his Project Better Place. Israel should convert from gasoline to natural gas to power automobiles. If Israel could develop this technology, it would be huge, as certain parts of the US, Canada could also power their cars on natural gas.

With experts saying that these wells could go commercial in 5 years, I would expect a pick up in Israeli start-ups that are going to tackle the natural gas issue.

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This post has been submitted by I’m Right You’re Wrong:

The Israeli Ministry of Finance should be applauded for sticking to its guns and wanting an energy policy that generates revenues and not dishes out subsidies.

It’s not that I have anything against alternative energies, after all I support the ultimate alternative energy, Nuclear power. It’s just that if these technologies are so wonderful why do they cost more and demand government subsidies to get them up and running? If they were so good couldn’t the private sector fund these projects entirely and make all the profits? Oh profits, you mean there aren’t any?

According to the report in Globes, the Ministry of National Infrastructures director general Hezi Kugler spoke at a conference and said: “The Ministry of Finance wants us to stop and assess the economic gain that alternative energies are likely to generate. Surveys in other places show that the public is willing to pay 20-30% more for alternative energy. We can supply energy from the resource that we have here (the sun) and increase our energy security. These are the right considerations. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Finance is doing everything it can to stop this going before the cabinet because they know there won’t be a single minister who will vote against it.”

Clearly the Finance Ministry is unreasonable in wanting to ‘assess the economic gain that alternative energies are likely to generate.’  Mr. Kugler, give me a break. First of all, you tell me who would be happy to pay an extra 20-30% for their energy? I wouldn’t be happy to part with that money, and I don’t know many others who would be doing cartwheels to pay a lot more either. Second, do you actually have the nerve to see it as being unreasonable that the Ministry of Finance wants to see if there will be any actual economic benefit from this whole project?

The Finance Ministry deserves a lot of credit on this issue in protecting the Israeli taxpayer from being burned by the alternative energy hype.

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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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