A theme that we have been echoing here at Israelnewsletter.com is the fact that many in Israel are living in a bubble and don’t realize that the economic tsunami that has swept the world will cause damage in the holy land. Globes has a great interview with Gemini Israel Funds general partner Menashe Ezra. He says, “Warren Buffett said that we’re facing an economic Pearl Harbor, and I feel that, in Israel, the understanding that we’re at war has not sunk in.” Ezra added, “One of the things that is bothering me is that we’ll experience a local patriotism. I think that globalization will take a few steps back. In Germany and the US, people realize that if they buy a locally made car they’re helping themselves.”

He goes on to say that he doesn’t think that money will be readily available to hi-tech entrepreneurs. “In recent years, we had too much money here. There was a bubble, and entrepreneurs could fund companies without paying a price. They left big companies and got similar salaries at private companies and start-ups. They received stocks and options. This had never happened before in Israel or in the world. It happened because of the surplus of money and incautious behavior, and it created distortions.”

The picture Ezra paints isn’t all that pretty for the short-term future of Israeli hi-tech. On the other hand I think we need to keep in mind that Israel weathered the internet bubble storm, and learned a tremendous amount in the areas of running businesses day to day. I think that that experience will help pull Israel through this global crisis, and the Israeli technology scene will be as strong as ever.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others:

The famed economic forecaster, Professor Nouriel Rubini, who is professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, has come out saying that he thinks Israel will sport GDP growth of about 1% in 2009. While that’s well off the 5-8% growth seen in recent years, it is still far superior to the projected growth( or negative growth) of most developed countries.

Globes reports:”RGE Monitor’s projection is for negative global growth of 0.5% in 2009. This is a far more pessimistic forecast than that of the IMF, whose latest estimate is for 2% positive growth. According to RGE, the US economy is so far only halfway through the recession that began to manifest itself in December 2007. The firm says this will be the longest recession in the US economy since the Second World War. RGE sees the US economy shrinking by 3.4% in 2009.”

He also sees Euro zone negative growth of 2.5%.

For investors looking for strong economies in a global slowdown, it pays to take a look at Israel.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others:

Speaking to a group of students, Bank of Israel governor, Stanley Fischer said that it remains to be seen how the Israeli economy will do after the war with Hamas is completed. Citing the abysmal global economy, Fischer thinks that a strong Israeli economic recovery will coincide with a global economic revival.

Globes reports, “Everyone can be wise in hindsight, but as of now, the Bank of Israel forecast is for 1.5% growth - but clearly we will have to change it in light of the worsening situation and in line with the situation of the fighting. It’s hard to know exactly, but we are already in a difficult situation. “When will we exit the crisis in Israel? It depends primarily on the global economy.”

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others:

As 2008 comes to a close, let’s take a look back at the predictions this pundit made a year ago. Let’s start out with some of my correct calls:

1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).

Nailed that one!

4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.

Many will say that was a no-brainer.

6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.

Just look outside your window.

Now for some of the less accurate predictions:

2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ‘08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ‘08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.

Oops!

3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued  new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.

So I missed a few on this one.

All in all not too bad. Stay tuned for ‘09 predictions.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others: