Written by: Aaron Katsman | June 5, 2008
Aaron Katsman
IsraelNewsletter.com
I posted yesterday about how a strengthening US Dollar could potentially benefit Israeli stocks that trade in the US. I was asked by some readers how come I think that the USD is poised for a rally? The answer…FIFO. FIFO is an accounting term that stands for ‘first in first out.’ With the global economy on the skids, the US was the first country to start having problems and with a vigilant Fed at the wheel, I think the US will return to normal growth in the next 6 months. After all, no recession occurred. The US has had no negative GDP growth quarters, and actually had a surprisingly good 0.9% GDP for Q1. Europe on the other hand, is just starting to show signs of a slowdown. I have heard analysts predicting a potential contraction of over 2% in European growth. That certainly will be bullish for the greenback.
I really think investors need to keep an eye on what’s happening in South East Asia. Asian stock markets like Vietnam rocked and rolled during 2006-07, unfortunately, steep market drops and a worsening economic situation may be a precursor to another Asian financial crisis like we had 11 years ago. Keep in mind that the Vietnam market has lost more than 55% during ‘08, and with inflation jumping, the currency has dropped. This isn’t just an issue in Vietnam. Countries like India, China, Philipines and Hong Kong are all in the midst of spiking inflation, and in the case of the Philipines and Thailand for example, sinking currencies. (Continue »)
Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com
I would be remiss if I neglect to mention that tonight is my wife’s birthday. This post is serving me as a reminder that I still need to buy her a gift. Maybe I will get her a subscription the the IOI Premium Newsletter! With gold prices surging, I can’t afford to by her actual jewelry, but I can afford to buy some shares in these 2 little-known Israeli stocks, and they are sure to be DIAMONDS in the rough.
Elbit Medical Imaging(EMITF) stock has dropped nearly 20% in the last few weeks. The real estate and bio-tech company was a big winner for investors in ‘07 and even with a slow start to ‘08, I look at ElbitMedical as a star performer this year as well. They are opening a mall in Poland( maybe I can get some cheap jewelry there) which is a continuation of their plans to continue building out the real estate holdings in Eastern European along with some new projects in India. As I have mentioned before, the real story with Elbit Medical is their very large stake in two of the most exciting private (though an IPO is definitely in the cards) companies Israel has to offer. Insightec ltd., develops a product that combines MRI technology with focused ultrasound in order to treat serious diseases such as bone, liver and brain tumors, without the invasive procedures that are currently used. The other private company is Gamida Cell. Gamida Cell is developing, along with the aforementioned Teva, a line of cell therapy products for the treatment of such diseases as leukemia and lymphoma.
Jacada(JCDA) a leading provider of unified desktop and process optimization solutions for customer service operations, has been signing deals right and left and a few weeks ago announced that they were selling their Application Modernization Business to Software AGfor $26 million. They are doing this to solely focus on high growth business, to position Jacada as a pureplay in the call center solutions business. The firm provides a single, unified workspace for customer service organizations managing lots of legacy and disparate software systems. My buddy Zack”I love the Internet” Miller had a great analysisof this deal. I really think Jacada is poised to fly, and in fact with all the current selling on Wall Street, Jacada stock has actually been inching up.
Happy birthday!
Disclosure: Author’s fund holds a position in EMITF and JCDA. He has no position in any other stock mentioned as of 1/9/08.
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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.
