As inflation rears its head around the world, Israel is no different from many other countries that have seen prices spike as of late.  Where Israel differs from the rest of the world is not in experiencing inflation, but how the economy is leveraged to it.

Let me explain: Israel suffered from bouts of hyperinflation during its 60 years of existence.  Most salient was the 1970s which saw double digit inflation throught the decade, culminating in 100+% inflation in 1979.  The beginning of the 1980s introduced stagflation and saw even higher inflation rates.

Here’s where the history impacts today’s Israel: in an effort to combat hyperinflation, Israel created an economy-wide phenomenon of CPI-linked debt.  This debt is not specific to a specific sector and according to a report produced last week by UBS’s Israel analysts, may compose over 50% of corporate debt, over 60% of the government’s shekel debt, and 60% of mortgages.

After the last couple of boom years 2005-2006, most of the corporate debt raised by Israeli firms is also linked to the CPI.  Merrill Lynch is out this morning as well with a study on the effects of higher CPI on Israeli firms.

The money line from the UBS report: However the spike in CPI in Q2 could affect the bottom lines of many Israeli corporates and we are concerned that a continued high inflation could continue to weigh on the profitability of many Israeli companies.

So, what’s an investor in Israeli firms traded in the U.S. to do?  UBS suggests underweighting those institutions with high CPI exposure.  The storm feared by analysts would play out with consumers being hit with rising prices in the market also being compounded with resets in adjustable rate mortgages that are linked to the CPI.  In turn, this could curb consumer spending which is playing a bigger and bigger role in GDP growth.

While Olmert clings to a feeble position in a government beset by scandal, UBS suggests that “the rise in CPI will also have fiscal implications as the Government could be squeezed by paying more on its CPI linked debts as well as collecting less corporate taxes.”

Zack Miller
IsraelNewsletter.com

(Another Globes article out this morning entitled ‘Ticking Bomb‘)

Share with others:

Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com

April’s Israeli CPI rose a much more than expected, 1.5% leading most analysts to predict that the Bank of Israel will raise interest rates by at least 0.5% at the end of the month. The inflation jump for April was the highest since 2002, and inflation over the last 12 is at 4.7%. IOIactually wrote about surging Israeli inflation some time back. The question for investors is how to play the rising inflation game?

I think that we will see a rotation out of local Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange stocks into Israeli stocks that trade abroad. Why? Because most of the large, locally listed companies are a play on the local consumption game. Keep in mind that Israel had been experiencing 5+% growth for the last three years. With surging inflation, and interest rates set to rise sharply, the local Israeli consumer is undoubtedly going to take it on the chin. All you have to do is walk into a local supermarket and you see how prices have risen. Tomato prices have almost doubled in the last few months, chicken, bread, other fruits and vegatable have all seen sharp price rises as well. The local consumer is sure to cut back spending, making local consumption stocks, not a particularly attractive place to park your money.

So what to do? As I said, I think we are at the early stages of a rotation into the Israeli companies that do most of their business outside of Israel. Hi-tech companies for the most part. We have seen a recent out-performance in these companies, and many have also produced stellar earnings reports. Companies like Given Imaging (GIVN), Syneron (ELOS) and Pointer Telocation(PNTR) have all blown past earnings estimates over the last few days.

If you are looking to invest in Israel, it may pay to take a long look at the Israeli stocks that trade in the US, as they appear set to outperform.

Disclosure: Author’s fund has a position in GIVN,ELOS, and PNTR. He has no position in any stock mentioned as of 5/16/08.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter. Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks. Go here to learn more.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others:

Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com 

The Bank of Israel  has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The central bank cited the higher than expected 0.4% rise in the November Consumer Price Index (CPI). With import prices, especially for food, soaring it appears that inflation has become a worry for the local economy. This could dampen potential ’08 stock market gains, as it may take a big bite out of domestic consumption. Many analysts point to continued increasing consumption by the consumer as a major driving force behind both strong economic growth and stock exchange gains for 2008. With inflation bubbling this could be very troubling.

For local Israeli investors looking how to invest to protect themselves against this inflation, they should consider Israeli government CPI linked bonds.  

In a disturbing aside, the Bank of Israel added,”The government’s budget surplus since the beginning of the year reached NIS 7.7 billion,” with all due respect what is the government doing with such a big budget surplus. Could it be that the government over-taxed the citizenry? The government isn’t a ”for-profit” organization, and as such, need or should be required, to refund all of that surplus ASAP, to the rightful owners…..the citizens of Israel.

Disclosure: Author’s fund holds no position in any stock mentioned as of 12/21/07.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter.  Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks.  Go here to learn more.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

Share with others: