Aaron Katsman
IsraelNewsletter.com

In what has been an extremely volatile trading session, which has seen the shekel trade near the 3.21 level against the US dollar, news that Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer has increased the level of BOI intervention in the currency market has sent the dollar surging by more than 2.25%. The BOI announced that it will increase it’s buy-up of the greenback to a $100 million a day.

The continued rise in the Shekel has defied all logic. Even yesterday, the shekel strengthened by more than 1%, as Iran announced the testing of missiles that have the range to hit Israel. Under normal market conditions that news would have sent the Shekel reeling, but it just didn’t happen.

Let’s see if fundamental reasoning returns to the local currency market on the heels of the BOI move, or if this move is just a knee-jerk reaction that will reverse in the next few days.

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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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Aaron Katsman
IsraelNewsletter.com

In what could be seen as a sad reality, on the heels of today’s terror attack in the heart of Israel’s capital city of Jerusalem, the Israeli Shekel is rallying more than 1.5% against both the Euro and the US Dollar. It used to be that after a terror attack the Shekel would drop. Unfortunately, after years and years of living with terrorism, today’s attack which has left at least 4 innocent people dead and scores injured, has had no effect on the currency market. The shekel continues to be one of the strongest currencies in the world, even in the face of continued terrorism, missile attacks in the south, and the threat of some type of military conflict with Iran.

It’s a pretty sad state of affairs that we have become so anesthetized by terrorism that it makes virtually no impact in our lives.  We just continue on as if nothing has happened. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of those that were killed, and we wish a speedy recovery to those injured.

Disclosure: Author’s fund has no position in any stock mentioned as of 7/02/08.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter. Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks. Go here to learn more.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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As the shekel continues to advance against most major currencies and especially against the US dollar, Israeli exporters are suffering.  As Katsman wrote recently about software integrator, BluePhoenix (BPHX), currency issues are partly to blame as certain firms feel the pinch on shekel-based research costs and the double-whammy of a macro slowdown.

I’ve heard of Israeli start-ups beginning to hire more employees in the U.S.  The wage differential is almost gone and given the onus of larger benefits packages for Israeli employees, Israeli firms are turning to offshore part of their engineering staff to America.

Imagine an engineer based in the Valley being cheaper than his counterpart in Tel Aviv?!

It’s nuts. (Continue »)

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Aaron Katsman
IsraelNewsletter.com

BluePhoenix Solutions (Nasdaq: BPHX) a leading provider of value-driven legacy modernization solutions was absolutely pounded yesterday on the heels of a couple of analyst EPS downward revisions. The Israeli company saw its stock fall more than 30% as analysts viewed the strong Israeli shekel as impacting earnings.

As reported in the Tech Trader Daily: “Roth Capital’s Nathan Schneiderman notes that Blue Phoenix has nearly 30% of its headcount in Israel, vs. less than 10% of its revenue. He notes that the shekel has appreciated 5% against the dollar since the company provided guidance on May 1.”

“Craig-Hallum’s Jeff Van Rhee made a similar call this morning, lowering EPS estimates “to reflect currency and increasing macro challenges internationally.”

Both analysts lowered future earnings estimates. Schneiderman cut his estimates by about 7-8%. So why should the stock have gotten crushed by 30%? It’s not exactly like BluePhoenix has been soaring and investors are being brought down to earth. It’s not exactly a secret that the Shekel has been strong. I find it hard to believe that investors were “shocked” to see that currency issues would impact earnings. At IOI we have been speaking about this issue for months. In fact both analysts have new $15 price targets. Even pre-rout that was a 50% premium to where it was trading, now at under $7/share we have a target more than 100% above the current stock price.

I am certainly not saying to run out and buy the stock. I am saying something strange is at play here. They are basing their call for ‘09 on continued shekel strength and too much exposure to the financial sector. Have these analysts turned in forex traders? Are they predicting that the Shekel will rise for another full year? Neither one of these issues is new, so why are they only waking up now and dropping numbers? After all the Shekel has been surging higher for more than a year, and we all know that banks will probably chop some IT spending in order to cut costs.

Is this another case of analysts making a call after the fact? If so keep an eye on BluePhoenix, as it may potentially turn into a juicy contrarian play.

Disclosure: Author’s fund has a position in BPHX as of 6/20/08.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

NEW! Introducing Israel Opportunity Investor, our monthly subscription-only newsletter. Stay ahead of the game and make smart decisions in Israel stocks. Go here to learn more.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.

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