As 2009 fades away, it’s time to step up to the plate and make my predictions for 2010. While my predictions for 2009 had a few misses, like the one that had the US dollar reaching parity with the Euro, some of my calls were actually spot on. My call on where the S&P 500 would close is within 1% of where it is!

Okay, enough backpatting, let’s get to the predictions:

1- Faced with unprecedented low popularity due to their reckless spending and softness on national defense, the Democrats lose control of congress, as a new Republican revolution sweeps the US.

2- The S&P 500 has another volatile year, but ends up registering a gain to close at 1291

3- The Planet continues to cool

4-After announcing that he will stay in school, University of Washington QB sensation Jake Locker has a great season and wins the Heisman Trophy.

5- A small scale sub-prime crisis hits Israeli real estate. As interest rates move up, and linked mortgages are reset, many recent buyers are unable to make monthly payments and are forced to sell their homes for 10-15% lower than they were purchased for.

6- Speaking of interest rates, the US government 20 year bond hits a 5.1% yield.

7- Zack Miller’s investing book, ” Tradestream Your Way to Profits” (coming out in the spring)becomes a business best seller.

8- The traditional secular stance of the Turkish army is lost as the country moves towards fundamentalism. This creates even more chaos in the Middle East, and Israel and India become very close allies.

9- Gold euphoria ends as common sense enters the market,  sending the price down to $750 an ounce.

10- Prez. Obama actually calls an Islamic terrorist, an Islamic terrorist. Well maybe that should be for 2011!

Happy New Year,

Aaron

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In one of the most inane/insane op-ed’s I have ever read, Ynet’s Tani Goldstein sets out to prove why expensive fuel is good. In his first killer point he says, “Making fuel more expensive will prompt some of us to use our cars a little less, and cars (including mine) are, simply put, humanity’s enemy. Cars are an enemy because they kill people: Since World War II, road accidents are the leading cause of unnatural death in the world.”

Last time I looked out at the parking lot behind my office I saw no cars attacking anyone. Alert: People who drive cars kill people! I also wonder how many people have been saved or born because of cars? Millions of pregnant women in labor were brought to hospitals in cars, and delivered babies. A lot more than were killed by unnatural deaths since WWII. I can see it now, some woman with contractions 5 minutes apart, and her husband sticks her in a wagon ties to his 10-speed and starts peddling to the hospital. Oh, I forgot, I am sure that the author only allows home-births.

In another truly compelling argument, Goldstein says, “By the way, there is no certainty that a car truly improves the quality of life of all motorists.” Uh Huh. So we need a 100% satisfaction guarantee in order to have any convenience?

After all, without vehicles, how are we to get all of Goldstein’s organic fruits and vegetables to market?

Finally for the finale, “Yet life is not a communist utopia, and the pleasures of life will never be divided fairly. Residents of peripheral towns will be inconvenienced to a greater extent.” No need to even respond to that gem.

Regarding peripheral towns, I think that without cars, they will be a thing of the past. How are these residents going to be able to get anywhere without a car? If Goldstein had his way, everyone would need to move to a big city. That does not sound so ‘environmental”, does it?

The fact is that automobiles are one of the greatest sources of freedom for individuals, and source of commerce the economy. By wanting to limit their use, he is trying to create a ‘Communist utopia”.

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After finding huge quantities of natural gas of the Haifa coast, not only will Israel be energy independent by 2012, but Israel will also be a major exporter of natural gas.

According to Ynet: “Countries that are likely to make use of Israeli gas include Georgia, that is currently dependant on a Russian gas supply despite the hostile relations between the two nations, Cyprus that has a similar problem since it is dependant on gas from Turkey, and Italy and Greece.

“The discovery of Israeli gas is a national holiday for all citizens of the State of Israel. After two of our drillings in the same area were successful and turned out to be commercial discoveries, it is probable, and we are hopeful, that the natural gas potential in areas that we have rights over, off the shores of Israel and Cyprus, seems to be monumental.”

This is huge for Israel. Add to a vibrant hi tech industry and now a vibrant energy industry should help spur domestic economic gowth for many years o come.

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Indications that the recent find of natural gas of the coast of the Israeli city of Haifa were pointing to a pretty big find. Now it turns out that it may be huge. According to Globes: “The consortium drilling the Tamar-1 well offshore of Haifa has received encouraging news from the drilling operator, Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL), which reported today that flow test results showed that the potential size of the original estimate of 3.1 trillion cubic feet has now been increased 60% to an estimated resource potential of 5 trillion cubic feet. Noble Energy chairman and CEO Charles D. Davidson said, “The test results from the Tamar well confirm our initial analysis that the discovered reservoirs are very high quality. This discovery is clearly of a size for commercial development. We hope to extend the success in Israel by testing Dalit, our second prospect.”

This is so big for Israel, that it’s hard to comprehend. Who could imagine that a country with little in the way of natural resources is now going to be a net exporter of natural gas? Suddenly Israel will be a player, along with its’ enemies in the region, in the global energy market.

I say forget Shai Agassi and his Project Better Place. Israel should convert from gasoline to natural gas to power automobiles. If Israel could develop this technology, it would be huge, as certain parts of the US, Canada could also power their cars on natural gas.

With experts saying that these wells could go commercial in 5 years, I would expect a pick up in Israeli start-ups that are going to tackle the natural gas issue.

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