Judging the ‘08 Predictions
Written by: Aaron Katsman | December 24, 2008
As 2008 comes to a close, let’s take a look back at the predictions this pundit made a year ago. Let’s start out with some of my correct calls:
1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).
Nailed that one!
4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.
Many will say that was a no-brainer.
6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.
Just look outside your window.
Now for some of the less accurate predictions:
2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ‘08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ‘08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.
Oops!
3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.
So I missed a few on this one.
All in all not too bad. Stay tuned for ‘09 predictions.
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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.
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