With 2007 about to finish, it’s time to look forward to 2008. Here are a few of my predictions for the new year. Before I start I just want to make clear I don’t expect anyone to hold me to what I say, but of course if I actually get something right, rest assured I will let you know about it.
1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).
2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best efforts of the media to “will” one. While the economy should slow somewhat during the first half of ’08, the economy will grow enough to stay out of a recession, and the second half of ’08 should bring back 4+% GDP growth.
3- The Rudy Giuliani/John McCain ticket will surprisingly win the US presidential election. With Republicans given virtually no chance to hang on to the White House, with a strong economy and the continued new-found success of the war in Iraq, they not only win but win back control of Congress as well.
4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.
5- Picking up from a lackluster ’07, with regard to M&A of Israeli publicly traded companies in the US, ’08 will have no less than 6 major deals. Look for Gilat(GILT), Retalix(RTLX), Commtouch(CTCH), Comverse Technology(CMVT.pk), CEVA(CEVA), and Fundtech(FNDT) to be acquired.
6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.
7- After completing an undefeated season and winning the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots’ winning streak is snapped in week 3 of the ’08 NFL season.
8- As much as I would like, most of these predictions will not come true.
We should all have a year of health, and happiness.
Disclosure: Author’s fund holds a position in GILT,CMVT.pk,CTCH,RTLX and FNDT. He has no position in any other stock mentioned as of 12/31/07.
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Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email firstname.lastname@example.org.