Read IOI’s Aaron Katsman in the International Herald Tribune discussing a small cap food company poised to make big moves on the international scene.
Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com
Leave it to the RadGroup to disappoint. After suffering through warning after warning, and earnings miss after earnings miss, Thursday’s Radvision(RVSN) earnings report finally did it to me. Like the poor sucker that needs to play defense all night against rookie phenom Kevin Durant, (SAVE OUR SONICS!) I am exhausted and ready to throw in the towel on Radvision. Ever the eternal optimist, even I am going to say adios to the video-conferencing company. It’s that time of the year so at least I will take a tax-loss( okay–a sizable loss) on the stock.
Boaz Raviv, Chief Executive Officer, commented: “Despite better-than-expected revenues for our TBU, on-target sales through our channel partner Cisco, and accomplishments company-wide, our performance in the third quarter of 2007 did not match our original expectations. This was due to slippage of some expected sales and the fact that our High Definition SCOPIA® Platform did not yet offer Continuous Presence, which resulted in lost potential sales in the third quarter, as we previously reported.
We now plan to focus on strengthening our reseller channel while fully supporting our OEM relationships. We believe our advantage as an independent network provider combined with the strength of our product portfolio will enable us to be successful in this effort, although we are realistic that it will take time to reach our goals.
Our fourth quarter forecast is based on this realism as well as our expectation that our sales through Cisco and those for our mobile product line and our TBU products will be in line with those of the third quarter of 2007.
We are fully determined to get back on track with our growth trend. We expect to do so no later than the second half of 2008. We are fully confident in our ultimate success.”
So their Q4 forecast is based on “this realism”, well what were this years previous forecasts based on? When we start hearing 2nd half ‘08, you can be rest assured that that will be an optimistic forecast.
What’s unfortunate is that Radvision’s technology is great, and their relationship with Cisco(CSCO), always gives hope of a potential M&A. But keep in mind, Cisco CEO John Chambers is no dummy. Why should he buy the company at a market cap of $260 million, down from $550 million 6 moths ago, when he knows that he probably will be able to get it even cheaper in a few months time.
Radvision is a stock to keep an eye on under $10/share, or as we approach Q2 ‘08. Until then, might as well take your tax loss and move on.
Please see our Disclaimer HERE.
Disclosure: Author has a position in RVSN. Author has no other position in any other stocks mentioned, as of 11/4/07.
Like what you see? Sign up to receive daily updates from IsraelNewsletter here
Aaron Katsman is the lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.
Aaron Katsman
www.IsraelNewsletter.com
As if the market isn’t bad enough today, along comes Merriman, Curhan, Ford & Co. and downgrades Alvarion(ALVR) saying that they don’t believe that Alvarion can compete with the big-boys. They say that telecom giants like Motorola(MOT), Alcatel-Lucent(ALU) and Nortel(NT) have the global mass needed to squeeze out Alvarion. These global giants definitely have lots of girth, but clearly though, for investors trying to make some money, it’s time for them to trim the fat. Over the last 2 years the “BIG 3″ have lost investors about 20% both in MOT and ALU and 50% in NT. This compared with Alvarion’s stellar 60% return. Just like a good defense in football; it’s better to be fast and agile than big and slow.
What they are missing is that Alvarion’s strength comes in emerging markets. Markets that the big-boys aren’t ready to play in. The company finished the 3rd quarter with 200 commercial deployments, up from about 170 at the end of Q2. It sure sounds to me that they are competing just fine. Giddy up!
Commenting on their results, CEO Tzvika Friedman said, “We are pleased to report another quarter of record revenues and we are on track to achieve our 25-30% growth objective for 2007. BreezeMAX revenue was more than double the level of a year ago. WiMAX shipments remained at a high level and we ended the quarter with over 200 commercial deployments, up from about 170 at the end of Q2. Many of these deployments are still in the early stages, and represent significant opportunities for future expansion.”
As a betting man, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the “BIG 3″ actually buys Alvarion, if Cisco(CSCO) ends up passing on them. After speaking with collegue Zack”Facebook” Miller, he agrees that one of these guys may try and make a play for Alvarion.
Sure looks like the business is very solid. Maybe, because I like underdogs, but at around $11.40, this looks like a steal.
Please see our Disclaimer HERE.
Disclosure: Author has a position in ALVR. Author has no other position in any other stocks mentioned, as of 11/1/07.
Like what you see? Sign up to receive daily updates from IsraelNewsletter here
Aaron Katsman is the lead portfolio manager for the Israel Growth Portfolio and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. For more information, go to www.israelnewsletter.com or call 1-888-327-6179, or email aaron@profile-financial.com.